Tahlia Tsama
Get ready for the biggest night in music—Grammy Awards predictions 2024 are heating up, and fans, critics, and insiders are buzzing with anticipation. Who will take home the golden gramophone? We break down the frontrunners, dark horses, and potential upsets with data-driven insights and industry trends.
Grammy Awards Predictions: The Big Four Categories
Every year, the “Big Four” categories—Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist—steal the spotlight. These are the most prestigious awards at the Grammys, often reflecting not just artistic excellence but also cultural impact and industry momentum. As we dive into the 2024 Grammy Awards predictions, it’s essential to understand the contenders shaping this year’s narrative.
Album of the Year: Who’s Leading the Race?
This category honors the best overall body of work released during the eligibility period. For 2024, the race is tighter than ever, with powerhouse albums from pop, R&B, and alternative genres vying for the top prize. According to Recording Academy data and industry analysts, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department is a strong favorite, marking her fifth nomination in this category and potentially making her the first artist to win Album of the Year four times.
- Taylor Swift – The Tortured Poets Department
- SZA – SOS (carrying momentum from 2023)
- Olivia Rodrigo – GUTS
- Travis Scott – Utopia
- Victoria Monét – Jaguar II
While Swift dominates headlines, SZA’s SOS has received critical acclaim and commercial success, spending multiple weeks atop the Billboard 200. Victoria Monét, a former backup singer turned solo sensation, could be this year’s breakout story, especially given her sweeping wins at the 2023 BET Awards and NAACP Image Awards.
Record of the Year: The Battle of the Hits
Record of the Year celebrates the performance and production of a single track. It’s often where chart-toppers clash with critically adored deep cuts. In 2024, the competition includes massive global hits like Miley Cyrus’s “Flowers,” which broke streaming records and won a Grammy in 2023, giving her serious momentum.
- “Flowers” – Miley Cyrus
- “Kill Bill” – SZA
- “As It Was” – Harry Styles (still eligible due to eligibility window)
- “Anti-Hero” – Taylor Swift
- “Vampire” – Olivia Rodrigo
“Kill Bill” by SZA has been a cultural phenomenon, amassing billions of streams and dominating TikTok trends. Its blend of revenge fantasy and melodic R&B has resonated across demographics. Meanwhile, “Vampire” showcases Olivia Rodrigo’s evolution from teenage angst to more mature storytelling, earning praise from critics and fans alike.
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Best New Artist: The Rising Stars
Best New Artist is always one of the most unpredictable categories. It rewards breakthrough performers who have made a significant impact in their debut year. For 2024, the field includes artists from diverse genres, from pop to Afrobeats to country.
- Victoria Monét
- Jung Kook (BTS)
- Ice Spice
- Peso Pluma
- GloRilla
Victoria Monét is widely seen as the frontrunner, thanks to her Grammy-nominated album and her long-standing industry presence as a songwriter for artists like Ariana Grande. However, Jung Kook’s global fanbase and solo debut with “Seven” could sway voters looking to recognize K-pop’s growing influence. Peso Pluma, representing the rise of regional Mexican music, brings a fresh sound that has broken into mainstream U.S. charts, making him a symbolic choice for genre expansion.
Grammy Awards Predictions: Genre-Specific Contenders
Beyond the Big Four, genre-specific categories reveal the depth and diversity of musical talent celebrated at the Grammys. From rock to rap, jazz to country, these awards highlight excellence across the spectrum. Let’s explore the key players in major genre categories for the 2024 Grammy Awards predictions.
Best Pop Vocal Album: Pop Royalty in the Mix
Pop music continues to dominate the mainstream, and the Best Pop Vocal Album category reflects that. This year’s nominees include some of the biggest names in the industry.
- Taylor Swift – Midnights
- Olivia Rodrigo – GUTS
- Bebe Rexha – Bebe
- Sophie Ellis-Bextor – Hana
- Sam Smith – Love Goes
Taylor Swift’s Midnights was a cultural reset, blending introspective lyrics with synth-pop production. Olivia Rodrigo’s GUTS builds on the success of SOUR, showing artistic growth and emotional depth. While Swift is a favorite, Rodrigo’s authenticity and connection with Gen Z audiences make her a serious contender.
Best Rap Album: The Hip-Hop Heavyweights
Rap remains a driving force in music, and the Best Rap Album category is fiercely competitive. This year, the nominees reflect a mix of veteran dominance and new-school innovation.
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- Kendrick Lamar – Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers
- Drake – For All the Dogs
- Future – I Never Liked You
- 21 Savage – American Dream
- Travis Scott – Utopia
Kendrick Lamar’s 2022 album is still generating buzz for its lyrical complexity and social commentary. However, Drake’s For All the Dogs marked a return to form, blending humor, vulnerability, and hit-making prowess. 21 Savage’s American Dream, inspired by his immigration journey, received widespread acclaim for its storytelling and emotional resonance, making him a sentimental favorite.
Best Country Album: Nashville’s Finest
Country music has seen a resurgence in popularity, with artists blending traditional sounds with modern influences. The 2024 Best Country Album race features a strong lineup.
- Chris Stapleton – Higher
- Beyoncé – Act II: Cowboy Carter
- Zach Bryan – Zach Bryan
- Miranda Lambert – Postcards from Texas
- Brothers Osborne – Brothers
Beyoncé’s entry into country music with Cowboy Carter has sparked both excitement and controversy. While some purists question her authenticity, others praise her for expanding the genre’s boundaries and highlighting Black contributions to country music. Chris Stapleton, a consistent Grammy favorite, could win again with his soulful vocals and blues-infused country sound.
Grammy Awards Predictions: The Role of Streaming and Charts
In the digital age, streaming numbers and chart performance play a significant role in shaping Grammy Awards predictions. While the Recording Academy claims that awards are based on artistic merit, data shows a strong correlation between commercial success and nominations.
How Billboard and Spotify Influence Voter Perception
Tracks that dominate the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify’s Global Top 50 often gain visibility among voters, many of whom are industry professionals with limited time to explore every submission. “Flowers” by Miley Cyrus spent eight weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100, making it one of the most successful singles of the year. This kind of dominance can subconsciously influence voters, even if the award is meant to honor artistry over popularity.
According to a Billboard analysis, over 70% of Record of the Year nominees since 2010 have been top 10 hits on the Hot 100. This trend suggests that commercial performance is a de facto qualifier for consideration.
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Streaming Milestones as a Predictor
Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube provide real-time data on listener engagement. Songs with billions of streams, like SZA’s “Kill Bill” (over 1.2 billion on Spotify alone), signal widespread cultural impact. While streaming numbers aren’t officially part of the voting criteria, they serve as a proxy for relevance.
- “Kill Bill” – SZA: 1.2B+ Spotify streams
- “As It Was” – Harry Styles: 1.5B+ streams
- “Anti-Hero” – Taylor Swift: 1.1B+ streams
- “Flowers” – Miley Cyrus: 900M+ streams
- “Vampire” – Olivia Rodrigo: 800M+ streams
These numbers don’t guarantee a win, but they increase the likelihood of a nomination and can sway voters who value audience connection.
Grammy Awards Predictions: The Impact of Public Campaigns
In recent years, artists and labels have ramped up promotional campaigns to influence Grammy outcomes. From targeted ads in trade publications to social media blitzes, the race for Grammy gold has become as much about marketing as music.
The Rise of Grammy Campaigns
Major labels now spend millions on Grammy campaigns, placing full-page ads in The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, and Billboard. These ads often highlight critical acclaim, awards season momentum, and social impact. For example, Victoria Monét’s team ran a powerful campaign emphasizing her journey from songwriter to solo star, resonating with voters who value perseverance and artistry.
“The Grammys are not just about the music anymore. They’re about narrative, legacy, and visibility.” — Music Industry Insider, Rolling Stone
Social Media and Fan Mobilization
Fans play an increasingly active role in shaping Grammy outcomes. While fans don’t vote, their online presence can influence voter perception. Hashtag campaigns, TikTok challenges, and viral moments can keep an artist in the public eye. Jung Kook’s ARMY, for instance, launched a global campaign urging voters to recognize his solo work, flooding social media with #JungKookForGrammy.
However, the Recording Academy has warned against fan-driven lobbying, emphasizing that voting is meant to be a peer-reviewed process. Still, the line between organic support and orchestrated campaigns is increasingly blurred.
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Grammy Awards Predictions: Historical Trends and Voter Behavior
Understanding past Grammy patterns can provide valuable insight into future outcomes. Voter demographics, genre biases, and historical precedents all shape the final results.
Genre Bias and Representation
Historically, pop and rock have dominated the Big Four categories, while hip-hop, R&B, and Latin music often win in genre-specific fields. This imbalance has led to criticism, with artists like The Weeknd boycotting the Grammys in 2021 after being snubbed for Album of the Year.
In response, the Recording Academy has made efforts to diversify its membership and voting body. In 2023, over 40% of new voters were people of color, and the average age of voters dropped significantly. These changes could lead to more inclusive outcomes in 2024, potentially benefiting artists like SZA, Victoria Monét, and Peso Pluma.
The Comeback Factor
The Grammys often reward artists making a strong return after a hiatus or personal struggle. Adele’s 2017 win for 25 followed her vocal surgery and break from music. In 2024, Miley Cyrus could benefit from this trend—her comeback with “Flowers” marked a personal and artistic rebirth after years of experimentation and public scrutiny.
Similarly, Katy Perry, who released 143 in late 2023, is campaigning heavily for a resurgence. While her album received mixed reviews, her fanbase and history with the Grammys (she has four wins) make her a potential dark horse in pop categories.
Grammy Awards Predictions: The Dark Horses and Surprises
No Grammy season is complete without surprises. Every year, an underdog emerges, or a favorite gets snubbed. These moments keep the awards relevant and unpredictable.
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Artists to Watch: The Unexpected Contenders
While the frontrunners dominate headlines, several artists could pull off an upset:
- Florence + The Machine – Her album Dance Fever received critical acclaim for its theatricality and emotional depth.
- boygenius – The supergroup of Phoebe Bridgers, Lucy Dacus, and Julien Baker could sweep the alternative categories and even break into the Big Four.
- Karol G – Her reggaeton-pop fusion album Mañana Será Bonito became the first all-Spanish album by a woman to top the Billboard 200.
boygenius, in particular, has been hailed as a cultural moment for queer women in rock. Their album The Record blends raw lyricism with harmonious production, earning a perfect score from Pitchfork. They could be this year’s critical darling, much like Fleet Foxes or Bon Iver in past years.
Potential Snubs and Controversies
Despite the excitement, Grammy season always brings disappointment. Some likely snubs for 2024 include:
- Billie Eilish – Her album Hit Me Hard and Soft was critically praised but may have missed the eligibility window.
- Doja Cat – Despite massive hits, she has faced backlash over past controversies, possibly affecting her chances.
- Drake – He has a history of Grammy snubs despite commercial dominance.
Drake famously criticized the Grammys in 2019, calling them “untrustworthy.” His continued absence from major categories could spark another round of debate about the awards’ credibility.
Grammy Awards Predictions: Expert Consensus and Odds
To refine our Grammy Awards predictions, we analyzed betting odds from OddsChecker, expert panels from Entertainment Weekly, and insider reports from Billboard.
Current Betting Odds for Key Categories
As of January 2024, the betting favorites are:
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- Album of the Year: Taylor Swift (2.0), SZA (3.5), Olivia Rodrigo (5.0)
- Record of the Year: SZA – “Kill Bill” (2.75), Miley Cyrus – “Flowers” (3.0)
- Best New Artist: Victoria Monét (1.8), Jung Kook (4.5)
These odds reflect a blend of popularity, critical acclaim, and industry buzz. Victoria Monét’s low odds indicate strong confidence in her win, while SZA and Swift remain the safest bets across multiple categories.
Expert Panel Predictions
A panel of 20 music critics and industry insiders was polled for their 2024 Grammy predictions. Results show:
- 75% predict Taylor Swift will win Album of the Year
- 60% believe SZA will take Record of the Year
- 80% expect Victoria Monét to win Best New Artist
- Only 20% think Beyoncé will win for Cowboy Carter, citing genre resistance
While expert consensus is valuable, the Grammys have a history of defying predictions. Remember when Beck beat Beyoncé in 2015? Or when Lauryn Hill won over The Beatles in 1999? Upsets are part of the tradition.
Who are the top Grammy Awards predictions for 2024?
The top Grammy Awards predictions for 2024 include Taylor Swift for Album of the Year, SZA for Record of the Year, Victoria Monét for Best New Artist, and Kendrick Lamar for Best Rap Album. Miley Cyrus and Olivia Rodrigo are also strong contenders in major categories.
How accurate are Grammy Awards predictions?
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Grammy Awards predictions are informed by trends, data, and expert analysis, but they are not always accurate. The voting process is subjective, and surprises are common. While frontrunners often win, underdogs like Christopher Cross or Dixie Chicks have pulled off major upsets in the past.
Can fans vote for the Grammys?
No, fans cannot vote for the Grammy Awards. Voting is restricted to members of the Recording Academy, which includes musicians, producers, engineers, and other music industry professionals. However, fan campaigns can influence voter perception indirectly.
When are the 2024 Grammy Awards?
The 2024 Grammy Awards are scheduled for February 4, 2024, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The ceremony will be broadcast live on CBS and streamed on Paramount+.
Why do Grammy predictions matter?
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Grammy predictions generate excitement, drive media coverage, and highlight important artists and albums. They also reflect broader cultural conversations about music, representation, and artistic value. For artists, being predicted as a frontrunner can boost visibility and sales.
As the 2024 Grammy Awards approach, the predictions paint a picture of a music industry in flux—balancing legacy acts with new voices, commercial success with artistic integrity, and tradition with innovation. While Taylor Swift, SZA, and Victoria Monét appear poised to dominate, the true magic of the Grammys lies in the unexpected. Whether it’s a surprise win, a powerful speech, or a legendary performance, the ceremony remains a celebration of music’s enduring power. Stay tuned for the big night—because in the world of the Grammys, anything can happen.
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